Probability Calculator

Probability Calculator

Calculate single event, complement, union (OR), and intersection (AND) probabilities for independent or dependent events.

Last updated: March 2026

Probability Inputs

Probability
0.500000
50.0000%

What is Probability?

Probability is a measure of how likely an event is to occur, expressed as a number between 0 (impossible) and 1 (certain). A probability of 0.5 means an event has a 50% chance of happening, like flipping a fair coin and getting heads.

This calculator supports four fundamental probability operations: single event (P(A)), complement (probability an event doesn't happen, 1 − P(A)), union (probability at least one of two events occurs, P(A ∪ B)), and intersection (probability both events occur simultaneously, P(A ∩ B)).

The calculator handles both independent events (where one event's outcome doesn't affect the other) and dependent events (where outcomes are related). For dependent events, you provide the conditional probability P(B|A), which is the probability of B occurring given that A has already occurred.

Probability Formulas

The Four Modes

Single: P(A)
Complement: P(A') = 1 − P(A)
Union (independent): P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A) × P(B)
Union (dependent): P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A) × P(B|A)
Intersection (independent): P(A∩B) = P(A) × P(B)
Intersection (dependent): P(A∩B) = P(A) × P(B|A)

Understanding Independence

Two events are independent if the outcome of one doesn't change the probability of the other.
✓ Independent: Rolling two dice—die 1 doesn't affect die 2
✓ Independent: Flipping a coin twice—first flip doesn't affect second
✗ Dependent: Drawing cards without replacement—first card changes deck composition
✗ Dependent: Rain today and rain tomorrow—weather patterns create dependence

When to Use Each Mode

Union (OR):
Use when you want the probability that at least one event occurs. Example: "What's the probability of rain OR snow tomorrow?"
Intersection (AND):
Use when you want the probability that both events occur. Example: "What's the probability of rolling a 6 AND flipping heads?"
Complement:
Use when you want the probability an event doesn't occur. Example: "What's the probability of NOT rolling a 6?"
Single:
Use for basic probability lookup or as a reference. Displays the probability exactly as entered.

Example: Card Drawing

Drawing from a standard 52-card deck:

Scenario:
Event A: Drawing a heart (13/52 = 0.25)
Event B: Drawing a king (4/52 = 0.0769)
Union (OR):
P(heart OR king) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A∩B)
P(A∩B) = 1/52 (king of hearts)
= 0.25 + 0.0769 − 0.0192 = 0.3077 (30.77%)
Intersection (AND):
P(heart AND king) = 1/52 = 0.0192 (1.92%)
Only the king of hearts satisfies both conditions
Complement:
P(NOT a heart) = 1 − 0.25 = 0.75 (75%)
39 of 52 cards are not hearts

Frequently Asked Questions

What's the difference between OR and AND?

OR (union) means at least one event happens—you're looking for the probability of A, or B, or both. AND (intersection) means both events happen simultaneously. For example, rolling a 6 OR getting heads vs. rolling a 6 AND getting heads.

When should I uncheck 'independent'?

Uncheck independent when one event affects the other's probability. Classic example: drawing cards without replacement. If you draw an ace first (A), the probability of drawing another ace (B) changes because the deck composition changed.

What is P(B|A)?

P(B|A) is 'the probability of B given A'—a conditional probability. It's the probability of B occurring assuming A has already occurred. For example, if A = 'first card is an ace' and B = 'second card is an ace', then P(B|A) = 3/51 ≈ 0.0588.

Why does union subtract P(A∩B)?

When you add P(A) + P(B), you count the overlap (where both occur) twice. Subtracting P(A∩B) corrects this double-counting. Think of a Venn diagram: union is the total shaded area, so you add circles then subtract the overlap you counted twice.

Can probabilities be negative or over 1?

No! Probabilities must be between 0 and 1 (or 0% to 100%). If you calculate a probability outside this range, there's an error—check that your events are properly defined and your inputs are correct.

What's the complement rule used for?

The complement rule (P(A') = 1 − P(A)) is often easier for "at least one" problems. Instead of calculating all ways something can happen, calculate the probability it doesn't happen at all and subtract from 1. Example: P(at least one heads in 3 flips) = 1 − P(no heads).

How do I calculate P(B|A)?

For dependent events: P(B|A) = P(A∩B) / P(A). It's the joint probability divided by the probability of the condition. Intuitively: among all cases where A occurred, what fraction also have B?

Are mutually exclusive events independent?

No! Mutually exclusive events (can't both happen) are dependent. If A occurs, P(B) = 0. For independent events, P(B) stays the same regardless of A. Don't confuse these concepts—they're opposite in a way.

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