Illustrate how plastic reduction policies might affect global waste and ocean pollution. This is a scenario tool, not a forecast.
Last updated: March 2026
Extended Producer Responsibility
Illustrative scenario using assumed coefficients for policy impacts and leakage.
Plastic policy scenario modeling illustrates how different regulatory approaches might affect global plastic production, waste, and ocean pollution. With over 400 million tonnes of plastic produced annually and only ~9% recycled globally, policy choices can materially change outcomes.
Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) policies require manufacturers to help fund collection and recycling systems. In this calculator, EPR is represented as an assumed recycling-rate boost so you can compare scenarios consistently.
Single-use plastic bans target high-volume, low-utility items like bags, straws, and disposable cutlery. Reusable alternatives reduce total production in the scenario model, but the reduction coefficients here are illustrative assumptions rather than forecasts.
Illustrative global policy package:
Illustrative result: waste drops from 364 Mt to 226 Mt (38% reduction). Ocean leakage drops from 7.3 Mt to 4.5 Mt annually, preventing 2.8 Mt of plastic pollution.
Contamination, collection costs, low oil prices (virgin plastic is cheap), and lack of infrastructure. Many plastics aren't technically recyclable, and even recyclable plastics often end up in landfills.
Mixed results. Bag bans reduce litter but may increase heavier bag sales. Success depends on enforcement, alternatives, and public buy-in. Best when part of broader strategy.
Extended Producer Responsibility makes manufacturers financially responsible for product end-of-life. Creates incentive to design recyclable products and fund collection/recycling infrastructure.
No. Even at 100% recycling, most plastics degrade after 2-3 cycles. Must reduce production. Recycling is essential but insufficient alone.
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